Disregard the nationwide sentiment captured by surveys depicting a decline in approval for President Joe Biden and instead focus on the intricate Electoral College dynamics, considering there are less than 11 months left until the 2024 Election Day.
Former President Donald Trump would need to overturn the results in three states that Biden claimed victory in during the 2020 elections to complete his political resurgence and reclaim the presidency. Recent CNN battleground state polls released on Monday suggest that if the elections were held today, Trump would be well on his way to achieving this goal.
Similar to Hillary Clinton’s situation, Biden secured the presidency by winning more votes nationwide than Trump, but his victory relied on razor-thin margins in several crucial states that Clinton lost in 2016.
Georgia plus Michigan plus one more equals a Trump victory
While national polling indicates the country’s lack of significant approval for either Biden or Trump, it’s the battleground state polls, such as those from Michigan and Georgia released by CNN, that cast doubts on Biden’s ability to maneuver the Electoral College equations.
Assuming Trump secures the Republican nomination (which seems highly probable at this point), flipping Georgia and Michigan, with their combined 31 Electoral College votes, would necessitate winning just one more battleground state that Biden secured in 2020. These pivotal states include Arizona with 11 Electoral College votes, Pennsylvania with 19, or Wisconsin with 10.
This doesn’t imply that Trump is guaranteed a win. The upcoming year will witness a whirlwind of campaigning and legal battles.
Trump confronts both federal and state charges for election interference, mishandling classified material, and New York-based allegations linked to hush-money payments made to an adult-film star. While Trump refutes these allegations and asserts innocence in all legal matters, Special Counsel Jack Smith, overseeing federal prosecutions, has expedited proceedings, seeking a US Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s immunity, possibly fast-tracking his initial trial scheduled for March.
Despite real legal risks, Trump’s political standing remains relatively unscathed.
Strength prevailing in Iowa
Republican Presidential candidate Donald Trump arrives to address his supporters after finishing second in the Iowa Caucus, in West Des Moines, Iowa, February 1, 2016. Republican Senator Ted Cruz has won the Iowa caucuses — the first vote in the US presidential race — in a tight contest with frontrunner Donald Trump and Senator Marco Rubio, US media projections showed.
His primary opponents have failed to unify behind a single alternative to Trump. In fact, a recent NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll implies that Trump’s support is escalating in Iowa, where the caucuses, holding the primary’s first spot, are scheduled for January 15. He commands the support of 51% of caucus attendees, while none of his five rivals even come close to reaching 20% in the survey.
In Georgia, Trump could face trial as early as August for 2020 election interference. Among other things, he had urged local officials to manipulate votes to overcome Biden’s 11,779-vote margin of victory in the state. While Fulton County prosecutors aim for an August trial, there’s a possibility that the state trial might be postponed until after the election.
A conviction could alter the landscape
A majority of registered Georgia voters (52%) approve of the charges, and a substantial minority (47%) believe Trump should be disqualified from the presidency if proven guilty.
Presently, Trump holds a lead in Georgia among registered voters (49%) over Biden (44%) in a hypothetical match-up, according to the CNN poll conducted by SSRS. In context, when Trump secured the White House in 2016, his victory margin in Georgia was less than a single percentage point.
Minor shifts might bring about significant changes
A swing of a few hundred thousand votes among the nearly 5 million expected Georgian voters in 2024 could be pivotal in deciding the state’s 16 electoral votes. In 2020, Biden secured 306 electoral votes to Trump’s 232. Trump needs an additional 38 electoral votes beyond his previous count to hit the coveted 270.
In Michigan, a part of the “blue wall” Biden reconstructed in 2020, he defeated Trump by 154,188 votes, a substantial improvement over 2016, when Clinton lost by a mere 10,704 votes.
At present, CNN’s Michigan poll indicates Trump at 50% compared to Biden’s 40%. Notably, 10% of registered Michigan voters expressed reluctance to vote for either candidate. The prevailing frustration seems to tilt against Biden momentarily in a hypothetical race for the state’s 15 electoral votes.
Biden faces an uphill task
If Michigan represents the blue wall rebuilt by Biden along with narrow wins in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Georgia symbolizes the diversifying Sun Belt, which Democrats view as a pivotal part of their future.
In 2020, Biden garnered 88% of Black voters’ support, a significant demographic in Georgia, according to CNN’s exit polls.
In the recent Georgia poll, Biden’s support among Black voters stands at 71% (versus Trump’s 24%). These figures are among all registered voters, not necessarily indicative of the voter turnout in 2024. Nonetheless, it underscores Biden’s imperative need to sustain the diverse coalition of Democrats.
“Polls don’t cast ballots, but voters do,” stated Kevin Munoz, a spokesperson for Biden’s campaign, emphasizing their endeavor to engage and mobilize a diverse coalition of voters. He added, “Our campaign is tirelessly working to present our popular, winning agenda against the unpopular extremism of MAGA Republicans.”
Biden’s supporters swiftly remind that former President Barack Obama overcame similar challenges in 2012, while Democrats, despite polling setbacks, narrowly lost the House of Representatives in the 2022 midterm elections but retained control of the Senate.
Anticipate more of this messaging as Trump’s legal battles heat up next year.
As another intense election year draws to a close, wherein candidates spar and warn of the nation’s future at stake, it’s unlikely anyone will find inspiration in the political system.
Notably, Trump’s lead in Georgia and Michigan relies on individuals who aren’t consistently engaged in the political process.
According to CNN’s Jennifer Agiesta and Ariel Edwards-Levy:
“Trump’s margin over Biden in the hypothetical matchup is significantly boosted by support from voters who say they did not cast a ballot in 2020, with these voters breaking in Trump’s favor by 26 points in Georgia and 40 points in Michigan.
Those who report having voted in 2020 say they broke for Biden over Trump in that election, but as of now, they tilt in Trump’s favor for 2024 in both states, with Biden holding on to fewer of his 2020 backers than does Trump.”
CNN’s Arlette Saenz highlights that Biden, possibly testing rhetoric before the general election campaign kicks off, has started singling out Trump more forcefully, particularly at off-camera fundraisers.
“The greatest threat Trump poses is to our democracy,” Biden emphasized to a group of donors in Los Angeles recently. “Because if we lost that, we lose everything.”
Biden is also stepping up his visits to battleground states. Recently, he visited Pennsylvania, a crucial state he won in 2020, to spotlight over $22 million in federal grant money earmarked for funding firefighter salaries and reopening three previously shuttered fire stations in Philadelphia.
While seemingly a small-scale event with a targeted audience, it underscores his engagement in a campaign that could be swayed by a handful of voters in specific states.
